Bitcoin. Nasdaq. Stocks. What you need to know.

 February 17

You may have felt like the last week or two in the markets (Bitcoin, Stocks, Silver) has been boring or uneventful. That's because it has... prices are rangebound. But behind the scenes warning bells are going off. Several risk indicators are flashing that you need to be aware of. I'll jump into those down below. But first....

I want to do a simple Technical Analysis of where we currently at, zoomed in on shorter timeframes. (4hr candle sticks). Each one of these purple and blue candles represents a 4 hour block of trading activity.

Attached are images of the S&P500 (SPX), The NASDAQ (QQQ), Bitcoin (BTC), and some black and white sketch we will get to later, better explaining how insiders at publicly traded companies are selling their positions like crazy.

I'm going to share my short term expectations throughout this post.

Bitcoin

First, let's take a look at Bitcoin. At the start of February, when BTC was at 75k, I put out a warning that BTC was about to break strong support and head down to the 200 EMA. Over the next two days, Bitcoin plummeted, all the way down to 60k, and currently has footing at $68,000. It's been at this level for two weeks. In the post, I specifically said this:

On this chart, the 200 EMA currently sits around $67,500

I stated that's where BTC will find support in the short term. And well, that's where Bitcoin has laid it's head to rest over the last two weeks.

But now what are we observing? Going back to Feb 4th , Bitcoin has been rangebound between ~65k and ~71k. This is shown by the pink parallel channel on the image above. All this means is that price action is bouncing between a ceiling and a floor. When Bitcoin climbs to 71k...it gets rejected. When Bitcoin falls to 65k... it finds support. Eventually, one of these walls will break and Bitcoin will go in that direction. Likely to the downside, here's why...

When you look at the massive insider selling across traditional markets (link below), revised -1million negative jobs data, tensions in Iran, and everything else, I believe that if you are short term bullish on crypto, you're likely on the wrong side of the trade. Historically, when insiders sell equities heavily, it often signals broader risk off sentiment, which can spill into crypto, and that's what we are seeing. When you combine that with what the SP500 and QQQ may do in the weeks ahead, it gets uglier.

Additionally, Bitcoin is forming a bear flag. Imagine a flag stick but flipped upside down. This is what the candle stick behavior looks like, and it's a bearish setup. It does not mean that it has to play out, but from a technicians perspective, I believe probability favors a downside move in the weeks to come... especially with everything else breaking behind the scenes... like bonds, more to come on that in a moment.

insider selling: https://finviz.com/insidertrading

But is there a silver lining for Bitcoin, yes.

If you've been around for a while, you know that I am not a short term trader. I like to buy assets that I can hold for years and not worry about the ebs and flows of short term volatility. That's why, I believe we have entered into dollar cost average territory for Bitcoin, and many alt coins as well. Cardano, is all the way back to September 2023 bear market lows. Further, Bitcoin's RSI on the weekly charts has gone even lower than the December 2022 bear market lows. So for long term investors, accumulation has begun.

But personally, I would not be deploying all at once here. Especially because SPY and QQQ are looking very weak. They look ready to roll over. If or when that happens... it will push crypto down even further. Bitcoin may even go into the 50's or lower. IF the S&P and NASDAQ roll over, that's very likely when we will see our long awaited entries for XLM at .11 and lower take place, and same for XRP and those price points. Maybe even some exchange manipulation shenanigans where extremely low wicks fill our orders.

But, don't let greed get the best of you. If those lower price points never arrive, you'll be upset you didn't buy good 'ol bitcoin at these price points... HENCE, DOLLAR COST AVERAGING.

NASDAQ and SPY.

When I look at the NASDAQ, in this case QQQ. It SCREAMS to me Wycoff Distriubtion.

This is a chart pattern that suggests a market may be topping out as larger players quietly sell into strength. It often shows sideways price action with fake breakouts before a potential downturn. I've attached a black and white photo to help show stock behavior in a Wycoff Distribution looks like. You don't need to understand it, just know that the current tops of QQQ and SPY, attached above, look just like a wycoff distribution. When you look at insider sells within publicly traded companies the past few weeks (linked above), it lines up.

So who and where is the strength they are selling into, whose buying? From what I've read and investors I keep an eye on, I've gathered that in the last month retail investors bought $48 billion in stocks. That's all time highs... the strongest equity retail flows in history.

Historically, when retail gets this confident, they get strongly corrected.

BONDS

Now what's one of the best indicators of how the stock market will behave? Bonds effectively influence the price of money, and shifts in yields often signal changes in liquidity, risk appetite, and the broader direction of equities. Let's do a walk down memory lane to the last SPY and QQQ post I did.

Lately I’ve been watching the bond market because historically it is bonds, not equities, that tend to flash early warning signs before major market corrections. One of the biggest signals is when short term yields begin falling while long term yields remain elevated or rise. That shift often reflects tightening financial conditions and higher borrowing costs across the economy. In past cycles, this type of yield curve behavior showed up before the 2000 dot com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic. It is not a perfect predictor, but the pattern has repeated enough times that it deserves attention.

At the same time, momentum in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ has clearly slowed over the last couple of months, stalling out since October 2025. (Technical Analysis below). When equity markets continue rising while liquidity indicators weaken, it usually means the rally is being carried by fewer participants and thinner capital flows. Bond yields influence everything from corporate financing to consumer loans, so when rates stay elevated or the curve steepens due to long term yields climbing... pressure builds underneath stock valuations. Historically, extended periods of elevated or restrictive rates have often preceded pullbacks because growth becomes more expensive to fund. We’re already in that setup, and now it’s about whether the market starts to finally react to it. My hunch, which could be wrong, is yes.

That said let's zoom out. None of this guarantees an immediate crash, but it does suggest risk is increasing. When there are bond market warning signs, fading stock momentum, and tightening financial conditions all lining up at the same time, it often signals the cycle is in its late innings, nearing a top, and a meaningful correction may be close. That’s why I’m treating traditional growth investments, like tech stocks, as being in a phase where caution is needed. Maintaining cash reserves, and positioning selectively matter more than buying dips.

So, there you have it. Congrats to you if you made it this far. This is a comprehensive, exhaustive unpacking of my take on Bitcoin, S&P500, and the Nasdaq.

But be pragmatic and smart. While I personally don't see a lot of bullish evidence on the horizon, markets have a way of suprising us all. Many investors have been sidelined with cash, waiting for the crash of a lifetime, that never came. The markets climbed for many years, and even when corrections took place, they would have been more profitable buying the indexes and riding it out because the crashes and corrections were less than anticipated.

That's why fundamental wisdom, and the saying "time in the market beats timing the market" is true. I am NOT saying to run for the hills. I am NOT saying to sell all you have and armageddon is about to take place.

I am saying, be smart. Have conviction. Expect volatility. Have good portfolio management strategies and don't be shaken out.

Even in 2020, after that crash, the markets were making new all time highs in only 89 days.

I'm simply saying, is this... if things get bumpy sometime in the short term, don't be surprised. This is why.

As always, nothing I say is financial advice. You must act wisely and responsibly for yourself.

More to come soon on gold silver and copper. Man, I love copper.